Robust Economy, Back to Prerecession Levels, Forces Beijing Into a Balancing Act

作者:1 发布时间:2010-05-13 文字大小:【大】【中】【小】

By DAVID BARBOZA

SHANGHAI — Data from China released on Tuesday showed explosive growth in some segments of the country’s economy, renewing concerns that Beijing may have to do more to prevent it from overheating.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said that retail sales and bank lending soared in April, while pressure on inflation rose. It also said that home prices jumped a record 12.8 percent from a year earlier, despite many measures aimed at cooling the sizzling property market.

Analysts say the new data will probably increase pressure on Beijing to raise interest rates and allow its currency, the renminbi, to appreciate against the dollar — a move that would make imports cheaper but exports more expensive.

“Right now, the growth is very strong,” said Wang Tao, an analyst at UBS Securities in Beijing. “The lending number was bigger than expected. We’re expecting a rate hike in June.”

It was the latest indication that China’s economy had more than recovered from the global recession and was booming, much as it was in 2007 and early 2008. In the first quarter of this year, China’s gross domestic product jumped 11.9 percent compared with the same period in 2009.

The Tuesday data showed that retail sales climbed 18.5 percent in April, and the People’s Bank of China said that domestic banks had issued about 774 billion renminbi in new loans, or about $113 billion. In March, banks issued about 510 billion renminbi in such loans.

Industrial production and fixed-asset investment — two main measures of growth — each slowed slightly in April from their pace in March but remained robust, growing 17.8 and 25.6 percent from a year earlier.

The new statistics are fueling a debate among economists about whether China’s economy is a bubble about to burst or the engine of sustained global growth.

Many economists credit Beijing with managing its growth relatively well over the last year. But Chinese officials have expressed serious concern in recent months about soaring property prices and the threat they pose to the economy and social stability.

For months, the government has been introducing new measures aimed at taming the property market, like requiring home owners to make larger down payments. It has also raised the prospect of introducing property taxes.

But prices have continued to rise at a spectacular pace. In April, for instance, the government said home prices in 70 large and medium-size Chinese cities had risen 12.8 percent, climbing for the 11th consecutive month.

“They’ve just announced several property measures, so we’ll probably see a little correction in prices in May,” said Wang Qian, an analyst at JPMorgan.

Also of concern is the consumer price index, which rose 2.8 percent in April — indicating greater inflationary pressure. Banks have already been told to put more reserves aside, which should reduce money available for lending, and slow thus purchases.

Analysts say the government is facing the delicate task of reining in property prices without undermining an important driver of economic growth.

The Shanghai composite index has tumbled 19 percent this year (after an 80 percent jump in 2009) amid fears that the government’s steps to cool the economy will clip profits. The index is down more than 20 percent from its peak in November.

But the rest of the economy seems oblivious. In April, China sold about 1.1 million passenger cars — 32 percent more than in the same month a year earlier.

And on Monday, the government said it had recorded a $1.7 billion trade surplus for April, rebounding from a monthly trade deficit of $7.2 billion in March — the first such deficit the country had recorded in years.

Beijing is under growing pressure from the United States and the European Union to allow its currency to appreciate. American and European officials have complained that China is keeping its currency artificially weak, making its exports more competitive and harming competitors trying to climb out of the recession.

After letting the renminbi appreciate gradually against the dollar from 2005 to 2008, the Chinese government has kept the currency at about 6.83 to the dollar since July 2008.

But recently, Chinese officials signaled that the government could allow the currency to appreciate soon.

Many analysts expect that to begin within weeks — especially since the American secretary of state, Hillary Rodham Clinton, and the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, are scheduled to visit China this month for the so-called Strategic Economic Dialogue.

“It may happen by then,” Ms. Wang said. “The trade numbers for China showed a surplus in April again, and so it seems the fundamentals are right for appreciation to happen.”

Sourced from www.nytimes.com