Asia’s Export Recovery Shows Risk of Europe Slowdown

作者:25 发布时间:2010-05-21 文字大小:【大】【中】【小】
 By Shamim Adam

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Asia’s growth is accelerating as companies ship more cars, computers and commodities overseas, highlighting the role of exports in the region’s recovery and the risk of a slowdown should Europe’s debt crisis worsen.

Trade accounted for more than half the 4.9 percent annualized growth in Japan’s gross domestic product in the first quarter. Taiwan’s economy grew 13.3 percent from a year earlier, the fastest in three decades, and Singapore expanded at a 38.6 percent annualized rate, reports showed yesterday.

Asia’s rebound is outpacing the rest of the world as companies from Nissan Motor Co. to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. increase exports and domestic spending strengthens. The recovery may slow as Europe’s debt woes hurt consumer and business confidence in advanced economies, and a weaker euro makes Asian goods more expensive.

“We should expect a moderation in exports because of the negative impact from Europe and the currency appreciation against the euro can really affect sales,” said Sebastien Barbe, head of emerging-market research for Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. “Asian exports to Europe are likely to decelerate but those to the U.S. and emerging markets will remain resilient.”

An escalation of Europe’s crisis forced the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to offer as much as 750 billion euros ($925 billion) to countries in danger of financial instability. Fiscal woes may push Europe into a “double-dip” recession while growth in advanced nations will be “anemic,” New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said May 12.

Stocks Tumble

Concern that the global recovery may stall sent stocks tumbling. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slumped 2.2 percent yesterday, adding to a 3 percent drop the previous day. The U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index slid 3.9 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average retreated 2 percent after opening today.

Singapore’s exports gained for six straight months through April, prompting the government to raise its 2010 overseas sales projection yesterday. Taiwan’s exports jumped 52.5 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier.

Taiwan Semiconductor, the world’s largest custom chipmaker, plans a record $4.8 billion in capital expenditure and may hire 3,000 workers this year. The cargo business of China Airlines Ltd., Taiwan’s biggest airline company, almost tripled in the first quarter from a year earlier as it benefited from “robust export growth,” spokesman Bruce Chen said yesterday.

At the same time, Asian officials warned of the possible repercussions from Europe’s turmoil.

Risks ‘Intensified’

“Developments in recent weeks suggest that downside risks have intensified,” the Singapore trade ministry said. “There is heightened market anxiety over the possibility of a sovereign debt default in Europe. While policy makers in the EU have introduced timely and forceful interventions to reduce the downside risk in the near term, significant uncertainties remain beyond the immediate horizon.”

The economy of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members will have “mediocre” growth in the next two years, Secretary General Angel Gurria said May 19. Its leading indicator index for Asia was little changed in March from February, while the reading for China fell, suggesting signs of stagnation in some economies, according to data released May 10.

Share of Exports

Asia’s developing nations are more reliant on overseas shipments than the rest of the world, with 60 percent of their sales abroad ultimately destined for the U.S., Europe and Japan, according to the Asian Development Bank.

The 10 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg, including the South Korean won and the dollar-pegged Chinese yuan, have risen between 12 percent and 21 percent against the euro this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks dropped to an eight-month low yesterday and has lost about 10 percent this month.

Japan’s Finance Minister Naoto Kan said the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is still not self-sustaining. The first-quarter expansion was the fastest in three quarters.

Besides turmoil in Europe, Asian economies also face the risk of a slowdown in demand from the U.S. and China. Sales at U.S. electronics and appliance stores dropped in April even as Americans snapped up 1 million Apple Inc.’s iPad that month.

“U.S. retail sales, which registered a second consecutive month of falling electronics sales, were an important reminder that the U.S. consumer may not be relied upon as a lasting driver of Asia’s trade,” said Frederic Neumann, a Hong Kong- based economist at HSBC Holdings Plc. “Leading indicators for a whole range of OECD economies have started to turn, suggesting that growth may begin to slow sequentially.”

China’s Tightening

China’s Shanghai Composite Index has dropped 22 percent this year on concern government efforts to cool property speculation will slow the world’s third-largest economy.

China and Hong Kong accounted for 44 percent of Taiwan’s exports in April, compared with about 10 percent each for the U.S. and Europe. For Singapore, 21.4 percent of overseas shipments went to China and Hong Kong so far this year, compared with 13.8 percent for European nations.

Growth may also slow as Asian central banks start to withdraw monetary stimulus to stem inflation and asset bubbles. China has ordered banks to set aside more reserves three times this year, the Reserve Bank of India increased interest rates twice, and Malaysia boosted borrowing costs in March and May.

Among Southeast Asian nations, Singapore and Malaysia’s export-dependent economies will be worst hit by any slowdown in European growth and demand, economists at Morgan Stanley said in a May 10 report.

--With assistance from Tim Culpan, Chinmei Sung and Janet Ong in Taipei. Editors: Matthew Brooker, Chris Anstey

To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net

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