Fragile economy must force G20 to tackle disparities

作者:25 发布时间:2010-06-04 文字大小:【大】【中】【小】
When the finance ministers and central bankers of the G20 arrive in the South Korean port town of Busan today, they may get ideas: this is the Asian capital of cosmetic surgery tourism — a place that specialises in the surface quick-fix.

But the economic equivalent of a crafty nip and tuck must remain a fantasy, say delegates who have already arrived here. In the past, the G20 may have been a dullish talking shop, but nobody can afford to return from this round with nothing achieved.

The recovery is fragile, the global economy still needs invasive surgery and the group gathering today should at least be prepared to make a first incision, say economists. Asian members of the G20 may be keen to settle questions surrounding the euro. The US, Britain and the larger emerging markets may be eager to challenge China on the yuan.

And looming over the whole event is the ever-more troubling status of Japan — mired in public debt that dwarfs anything in the developed world.

Japan will not be sending a finance minister to Busan because it does not have one: the other 19 finance ministers may use the opportunity to establish just how worried they are about the country’s economy.

Japan aside, the wider global economic situation is serious enough, said Julian Jessop, chief international economist for Capital Economics, to expect something to come out of this meeting. It could be something on trade imbalances, or a more honest all-round appraisal of sovereign debt issues in Europe.

The global banking industry, analysts say, should watch G20 very carefully as well: if there is a move towards hitting banks hard via new taxes, this may be where the momentum begins.

The most practical outcome of the meeting is likely to be generated by China: many expect it will quietly give its G20 colleagues the nod on its currency, unpeg it from the US dollar and begin letting it rise.

The event will also provide an opportunity for finance chiefs from around the world to meet George Osborne, as he makes his first big international trip as Chancellor. Yesterday, after a stop in Beijing, he made his first comments on the question of how far China’s undervalued currency may be causing big economic imbalances.

“Countries with high budget deficits need to make sure they can deal with those deficits,” he said. “Surplus countries also need to play their part contributing to global growth.”

sourced from www.csmonitor.com