Asian surge continues; supply contraints in medium term add to pressure.

Thermal coal prices are expected to harden into the second half of this year, on the back of strong demand from Asian economies and a possible resurgence in European requirement.

Supply-side constraints are likely to provide additional support, as major producers such as Australia and South Africa are undertaking infrastructure overhauls. These are unlikely to be completed in the next two years.

Coal-hungry China will continue to lead Asian demand, with analysts anticipating a substantial increase in the amount being brought into the country, even as the overall import requirement in the region is steadily increasing. "Global coal prices will continue to be linked to Chinese demand. It could import as much as 170 million tonnes this year. If demand picks up in other regions, it will put pressure on the supply chain," said Paris-based International Energy Agency’s coal analyst, Brian Ricketts.

According to Barclays Capital’s estimates, China imported about 82 million tonnes of thermal coal last year. Japan’s coal import outlook remains static: UBS Equity Research indicates its new power capacity is likely to be nuclear-driven, rather than coal-based. However, demand from other nations such as Korea and Taiwan is expected to grow.

India, the world’s fastest growing coal importer, could also bring in an additional 27 mt of the fuel over the next two years, taking the total import figure to about 72 mt in 2011. Moreover, Vietnam, which three years ago was the largest exporter of coal to China, is expected to become a net importer by 2015, putting further pressure on global supply in the medium term.

Asia switch for S Africa
The increase in Eastern demand has meant that producers such as South Africa, earlier focused on servicing the European markets, are now sending more coal into Asia. South African exports to Pacific-based customers, show Barclays Capital Commodities Research figures, doubled in 2009 to 30.18 mt, accounting for 45 per cent of all coal export from the country. In 2008, only 22 per cent of its coal exports went to Asian markets.

During this period, India’s share of South African exports grew from 8.45 mt to 20.58 mt, a year-on-year increase of 144 per cent. But, South African exports have limitations due to logistical problems. "Since they are building infrastructure now, increase in demand will be difficult to service. The capacity increase will be coming on-line around 2013," said Andreas Bokkenheuser, an analyst with UBS Singapore.

With European coal demand expected to recover slowly on the back of an overall economic resurgence and rising gas prices, supply chains could be stretched. The International Energy Agency estimates that about 213 mt of coal was imported by Europe in 2008, a number that dipped in 2009 due to the slowdown and availability of cheap gas. "This year, Europe’s imports should remain about 200 mt. Italy is the only country where we are seeing coal demand increasing," Ricketts added.

London-based Barclays Capital analyst Amrita Sen said coal burn across Europe had increased, especially in economies such as Germany that have seen increased industrial production. "Compared to last year, demand will pick up in Europe. But, there are other issues such as the industrial production and existing stockpiles that will influence the situation. European sourcing could increase in the fourth quarter, and when that happens, Russian and Columbian supplies that service the region will not be enough," Sen said. Resultantly, global coal price projections are also reflecting the demand disparity.

While spot prices at Australia’s Newcastle and South Africa’s Richard’s Bay ports are expected to move towards $100 a tonne and $90 a tonne, respectively, the commodity should be cheaper in Europe, with Barclays Capital forecasting API2 at $81 a tonne.

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